Southwest Monsoon Set to Hit Kerala Soon: IMD Prediction
The India Meteorological Department predicts that the southwest monsoon will reach Kerala within 2-3 days, though it may bring below-normal rainfall due to developing El Nino conditions. This may affect agriculture and water supplies.
Highlights
- •Southwest Monsoon Arrives in Kerala in Next 2-3 Days
- •Forecasted Rainfall Below Normal
- •El Nino Conditions Developing in Pacific Region
- •Agriculture Impacted by Delay and Reduced Rainfall
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast suggests that the southwest monsoon will arrive in Kerala within the next two to three days, marking a significant turning point after a delayed onset. Traditionally, the season officially commences around June 1.
According to the latest prediction, favorable conditions are expected for further advancement of the southwest monsoon into various regions including some parts of the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. The advance could also occur in more areas such as the southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal, among others.
Potential Rainfall Below Normal
In a recent update, IMD forecast that this monsoon season's rainfall is likely to be below-normal. An IMD prediction indicates India will receive 90 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall this year. The LPA refers to the seasonal rainfall recorded over a region averaged over several decades, with the current LPA for India being 87 cm.
A delayed arrival and below-normal rainfall could partly be attributed to El Nino conditions currently developing in the equatorial Pacific. The IMD predicts weak El Nino conditions this June but anticipates moderate to strong El Nino by September.
The monsoon's early arrival or delay can significantly impact agricultural production, water supplies, and overall economic stability. Farmers and policymakers are closely monitoring these developments to ensure adequate planning for the upcoming season.
