Strait of Hormuz Reopening: Why Global Shipping Won't Normalize for Months
A peace deal will reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, but global supply chain recovery is expected to take months. Factors including mine clearance, high insurance costs, port congestion, and container imbalances mean a return to normalcy will likely take until late 2026.
Highlights
- •The Strait of Hormuz, handling 20% of global oil, is set to reopen following a peace deal.
- •Post-blockade recovery is expected to take months due to mine clearance and high insurance costs.
- •Secondary congestion at major global ports is likely to persist for three to four months.
- •Global supply chain stabilization is projected to require nine to 12 months to achieve balance.
A tentative peace agreement between Iran and the United States is set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint responsible for transporting approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. While this diplomatic development has prompted a swift reaction in global oil markets, experts warn that the global supply chain will require several months to fully recover from the disruption caused by the blockade.
The closure of this vital waterway began on February 28, 2026, following joint military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. In retaliation, Tehran effectively blocked commercial traffic by targeting vessels and deploying sea mines. At the height of the crisis, daily traffic plummeted from roughly 100 ships to just six, resulting in a massive backlog of over 1,500 vessels, which triggered a prolonged global energy strain.
Operational Challenges and Shipping Delays
Even with the impending reopening, normalcy remains elusive due to significant logistical hurdles. Shipping industry leaders, including Hapag-Lloyd, anticipate that re-establishing fully functional networks will take considerable time. A major factor slowing the restart is the need for mine clearance and the normalization of war-risk insurance premiums. These premiums surged during the conflict, climbing from 0.25 percent of a vessel's value to as much as eight percent, adding millions of dollars to the cost of transit for individual tankers.
Furthermore, the infrastructure at major trans-shipment hubs such as Jebel Ali, Colombo, Singapore, and Tanjung Pelepas is currently under extreme pressure. These ports have been operating at elevated capacities to manage cargo diverted during the closure. As traffic begins to flow through the Strait of Hormuz once again, these hubs will face a new surge in volume, likely creating secondary congestion that could persist for three to four months.
Persistent Supply Chain Imbalances
The disruption also forced a massive restructuring of global shipping routes, with many carriers diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. Reversing these changes is not a simple task, as shipping companies have already locked into new contracts and schedules for the remainder of 2026. Historically, maritime routes often remain altered long after formal ceasefires are declared, similar to the lingering effects seen after the Houthi attacks in late 2025.
Finally, a critical container imbalance continues to hamper efficiency. The blockade trapped numerous loaded containers within the Persian Gulf while causing a surplus of empty units at various international terminals. Addressing this logistical gridlock is essential. Analysts estimate that while incremental improvements may be seen within five months, achieving a stable, pre-crisis balance across the global network could take between nine and 12 months.
